By Jorgen Randers, G. Bologna
1972: su incarico del membership di Roma, un gruppo di studiosi dell’MIT pubblica I Limiti dello sviluppo, che prefigura gli effetti della crescita della popolazione, dei consumi e dell’inquinamento su un pianeta fisicamente limitato. Dopo decenni di critiche feroci, ormai si ammette che le conclusioni di quello studio erano corrette.
2012: Jorgen Randers, uno dei coautori di I limiti dello sviluppo, fa il punto su quanto è successo e prova a delineare il futuro globale da qui al 2052. Vivremo sempre più nelle città, saremo più connessi e creativi, e dovremo trovare nuovi modi consistent with gestire le tensioni dovute alle diseguaglianze crescenti. Probabilmente l. a. popolazione non crescerà quanto previsto, con una riduzione degli impatti sulla biosfera, ma le rinnovabili non riusciranno a rimpiazzare i combustibili fossili in pace consistent with eliminare del tutto los angeles possibilità di un riscaldamento climatico catastrofico... Nessun settore è escluso, e Randers ci mette a disposizione una guida in line with interpretare e gestire le turbolenze dei prossimi quarant’anni.
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Extra info for 2052: scenari globali per i prossimi quarant’anni
Famines have tended to occur in colonial territories governed by rulers from elsewhere (as in British India or in an Ireland administered by alienated English rulers), or in one-party states (as in the Ukraine in the I93os, or China during 1958-I96I, or Cambodia in the I970s}, or in military dictatorships (as in Ethiopia, or Somalia, or some of the Sahel countries in the near past). Indeed, as this book goes to press, the two countries that seem to be leading the ('famine league" in the world are North Korea and Sudan-both eminent examples of dictatorial rule.
__;: . _,_ ___ .. _ .. i t 1 II _1.. i i • .. ! t-----1 __ .. s.... 85 ac .... s. ·-. S. S. : National Center for Health Statistics, 1996); Kerala, 1991: Government of India, Sample Registration System: Fertility and Mortality Indicators I991 (NewDelhi: Office of the Registrar General, 1991); China, 1992: World Health Organization, World Health Statistics Annual I994 (Geneva: World Health Organization, 1994). 10 It is also worth noting that African Americans in the United States as a whole include a great many internal diversities.
A freedom-based perspective on development picks up this issue immediately in a way that an evaluative system that focuses only on culmination outcomes may not. The point can be illustrated with the debates surrounding the nature of slave labor in the southern United States before its aboli tion. The classic study on this subject by Robert Fogel and Stanley Engerman (Time on the Cross: The Economics of American Negro Slavery) includes a remarkable finding about the relatively high ''pe cuniary incomes)) of the slaves.
2052: scenari globali per i prossimi quarant’anni by Jorgen Randers, G. Bologna